Why Was 2026 a Quiet Hurricane Season?

If 2026 finishes with one hurricane, it will be the first Atlantic season to do so in 101 years.

The 2026 hurricane season was quiet with only one hurricane forming, reaching landfall as a category 2 storm near Destin, Florida. This is highly unusual – usually, an average Atlantic Hurricane season has 7 hurricanes – and can be attributed to a strong El Nino, and its strong cross cutting winds.

Below, Perry Weather Senior Enterprise Meteorologist Samantha Davies shares an update for the remainder of the season, and discusses why this year’s season has been historically quiet.

The 2026 Hurricane Season So Far

2026 was a quiet season – in total, only nine named storms formed, and all but Isaias remained at Tropical Storm strength.

Historically, there have only been two Atlantic storm seasons that had only one hurricane –  1905, and 1925. Of course, those years predate satellite monitoring, so some storms could have gone undetected. But that means that if no additional hurricanes form, 2026 will finish with the fewest Atlantic hurricanes of any season in the satellite era, and the fewest Atlantic basin hurricanes in the last 101 years.

“All but Isaias remained at Tropical Storm strength this year,” said Davies. “We expected a notably down year, but none of us could have predicted it would be this dead.”

How El Nino Has Limited Hurricane Activity

The quiet hurricane season has been due in large part to this year’s record-breaking El Nino event. El Nino is a climatic pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the equatorial Pacific for an extended period of time. The climate phenomenon happens every two to five years. 

But the reason El Nino produced a lack of storms has nothing to do with sea water temperatures, and everything to do with winds.

“During El Nino events, more wind shear is present,” explains Davies. She adds that she doesn’t think much else will be changing anytime this season. “NOAA says there is a high chance this strong El Nino intensifies and lasts through early 2027. There is an over 80% chance El Nino will last through the January- March timeframe.”

But doesn’t warmer waters mean more storms?

“Warm sea surface temperatures are just one ingredient needed for a hurricane to form,” says Davies. “You also need a pre-existing weather disturbance, and low wind shear. For this season, the warm water was there, but El Nino limited further development.”

The altered circulation patterns from El Nino also causes the jet stream to shift southward, introducing cooler, drier air into the areas where hurricanes typically form or track. Sinking air warms and dries out, which suppresses the deep thunderstorms and convection required to fuel a hurricane.

But while El Niño has helped keep the Atlantic quiet, it’s had the opposite effect in the Pacific.

“El Nino did contribute to a very active Pacific Hurricane season,” Davies said. When asked about whether we’ll see any further storms in the Atlantic Basin, however, Davies says chances are slim.

“Historically, we haven’t seen storms form in the Gulf this late in the year.”

That means more than likely, we’ve seen the last of this year’s storms.

How Wind Shear Disrupts Hurricanes

Wind shear is winds changing directions at different heights, and it disrupts hurricanes by removing the heat and moisture they need away from their center – tearing apart hurricanes before they can even develop. 

“Ideally, hurricanes form when winds come in a consistent direction, allowing the vertical core of the storm to grow,” says Davies.

Of course, this isn’t a hard and fast rule. Large and powerful hurricanes resistant to wind shear have developed in the past. And conversely, tropical disturbances under 10 knots of windshear have not intensified – usually because cold dry air alongside an upper level trough of low pressure is interfering with development. 

But with the El Nino at play, warm Pacific waters are generating stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere than winds at lower heights. Some meteorologists say the wind shear has been the strongest on record since 1979, when record-keeping for wind shear began. 

“That’s what we’re seeing happening right now in the Atlantic basin. With wind changing directions along the core, it just rips hurricanes right apart.”

Other Factors That Can Lead to a Quiet Hurricane Season

While El Nino is primarily the cause of the quiet hurricane season in 2026, there are other factors that can cause a quiet hurricane season, including dry, dusty Saharan air, known as Saharan Dust plumes.

“It basically robs the Atlantic of the rich, moist air needed to form a hurricane,” says Davies. “The warmth, dryness, and strong winds are known to prevent and tear apart storms.”

That wasn’t the case for this year, when the overall volume of Saharan dust was actually the third lowest on record.

“The dust wasn’t a major player in this year’s hurricane season,” says Davies. “Saharan dust levels were lower than normal across the tropical Atlantic through July. This year’s peak wasn’t there due to the strong El Nino, not the lack of Saharan dust.”

Atmospheric levels also can play a part in quiet storm seasons. In 2026, there’s the ongoing effect of climate change, which some meteorologists link to atmospheric stability in the tropical Atlantic. As air high in the atmosphere warms faster than air near the surface, it becomes harder for thunderstorms to rise and organize into hurricanes – even over warm ocean water.

What Could Change for the 2027 Hurricane Season

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30th, but that doesn’t mean it’s all smooth sailing. In 2027, there will be no strong influence from either El Nino or La Nina, and Davies cautions that that could actually increase hurricane activity.

“Neutral events tend to enhance hurricane activity, whereas El Nino events are usually associated with our quieter seasons,” explains Davies. “If neutral conditions are present, it could be a near normal season, but if it’s on the more active side, the neutral conditions could enhance that activity and cause more storms than normal.”

NOAA typically releases hurricane season predictions ahead of the season, during mid-May. 

Of course, forecasting so far ahead can be tricky. For 2026, NOAA predicted 3 – 6 hurricanes, with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic basin has only seen one so far. 

“Remember, it only takes one storm to cause a damaging and disruptive season,” cautions Davies.

The Bottom Line

This year’s quiet Atlantic hurricane season shows how much the atmosphere matters. Warm ocean water alone cannot sustain a hurricane when strong wind shear and dry air prevent storms from organizing. El Niño has helped create those unfavorable conditions in 2026, but conditions can change from one season to the next.

Perry Weather’s 24/7, in-house team of degreed meteorologists help your organization understand what changing conditions and severe weather events mean for you.